NHL

NHL 31 for 31: Dallas Stars

The Below the Ice crew brings you NHL: 31 for 31.

This year as the clock ticks down towards the NHL season, the writers here at BTI will be bringing you our preview of all 31 NHL teams, in 31 days.

Day 11

The trip through the Central Division takes a stop in the lone star state of Texas, as we take a look at the Dallas Stars.

Last Season

The 2017-18 season was supposed to be a bounce back year for the Stars after finishing 11th in the Western Conference with a record of 34-37-11 in 2016-17. While the Stars did improve last season finishing with a record of 42-32-8, the Stars still missed the playoffs by three points finishing sixth in the division and 10th in the conference.

Much of Dallas’ woes came when playing away from the American Airlines Center, posting a record of 16-20-5 away from home, compared to their home record of 26-12-3.

Dallas made some big moves last off-season. They acquired the negotiation rights to goaltender Ben Bishop in exchange for a fourth-round pick and promptly signed him to a six-year deal with a 4.1967 AAV. Dallas also acquired defenseman Marc Methot from the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for a second-round pick in 2020 and prospect Dylan Ferguson.

The Stars were lead by the usual suspects of, Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin who had 79 and 78 points respectively. John Klingberg had a career year on defense pitching in 67 points. New comer Alex Radulov had a career year as he had 72 points improving from the 62 he had in Montreal in 2016-17.

Dallas’ two big problems were scoring depth and injuries. Aside from Benn, Seguin, Radulov and Klingberg, no other Stars player had more than 35 points last season. This includes Jason Spezza, who only was able to muster 26 points last year. Martin Hanzel suffered from both a lack of scoring and injuries last season. Hanzel suffered back problems all season, limiting him to 38 games and 10 points. Hanzel underwent spinal fusion surgery back in March and will possibly be back by November. Ben Bishop was also injured on and off throughout the year limiting him to just 53 games last season.

Offseason Moves:

April 13: Head Coach Ken Hitchcock announces retirement from coaching in the NHL.
May 4: Stars name Jim Montgomery new head coach.
May 19: Assistant Coach Rick Wilson announces retirement.
May 31: Name Todd Nelson Assistant Coach
June 22: Re-signed Stephen Johns to a three year deal, 2.350 AAV
July 2: Sign Blake Comeau to a three year deal, 2.40 AAV
July 2: Sign Valeri Nichushkin (KHL) to a two year deal, 2.950 AAV
July 2: Signs Anton Khodobin to a two year deal, 2.50 AAV
July 25: Re-signed Mattias Janmark to a one-year deal, 2.30 AAV

In:

Blake Comeau, Valeri Nichushkin, Anton Khodobin

Out:

Dan Hamhuis, Kari Lehtonen, Antoine Roussel

Offseason Grade C+

Dallas addressed some much needed scoring depth needs this season. Signing Valeri Nichushkin, Dallas’ former first round pick in 2013 looks as if he will slat into the second or third line. Nichushkin spent the last the last two seasons in the KHL honing his game as many labeled him a bust after his first three seasons in the NHL.

The Stars also signed Blake Comeau in free agency. Comeau played the last three seasons with Colorado where he has averaged around 30 points a season. Filling right into the mold of Dallas’ secondary scoring being unable to eclipse 35 points. However Comeau is essentially replacing Antoine Roussel, who signed with Vancouver in free agency. Comeau is more skilled than Roussel so he should be able add more scoring help than Roussel was able to muster.

Dallas’ finished off their signings by bringing in Anton Khodobin on a two-year deal. Khodobin is a very reliable back- up, so if Bishop does happen to get hurt again, Khodobin should fill in nicely. Khodobin played the last two years with the Boston Bruins backing up Tukka Rask.

However Dallas got weaker on the defensive side of the puck by losing Dan Hamhuis to Nashville in free agency. Unless one of the Stars prospects is able to make the jump their will be a hole on defense.

Breakout Candidates

Miro Heiskenen

30 GP 11G, 12A (SM-liiga Helsinki)

With a hole on Dallas’ blue-line, Miro Heiskenen is poised to make a big impact in the Stars line-up this year. Heiskenen was the third overall pick in the 2017 draft and is known for his smooth skating, strong two-way game and puck handling skills.

So far throughout the off-season, Heiskenen has been praised for his maturity on and off of the ice by General Manager Nill. This should see him jump right into a impact role with the Stars this coming season.

Heiskenen should be a lock for first or second paring defeseman along side John Kilingberg. Heiskenen should also see some power-play time this year. With the possibility of Benn, Seguin, Radulov, Klingberg and Heiskenen all on the same power-play unit, it could form one of the more dangerous tandems in the NHL.

The jump to the NHL is usually a little tougher for defenseman, but Heiskenen should fair well this season. The weight will be on his shoulders to produce right away, however he the skill set to live up to the hype.

2018-19 Predictions: 9G, 27A

Radek Faksa

79 GP 17G 16A

The time will never be better for Radek Faksa to prove that he is a second-line center in the NHL. With Martin Hanzel being out for at least the next couple of months and Jason Spezza seemingly regressing to a third/fourth line center role, Faksa’s only real competition for the second line center position would be Mattias Janmark, who out scored Faksa by one point last year.

Faksa was originally drafted back in 2012 with the 13th pick in the first round. It took Faksa a while to make the jump to the NHL, not making his NHL debut until the 2015-16 season. Faksa had a tough time in the AHL as he was often injured, hampering his chances at developing into an NHL player Since getting the chance to play in the NHL Faksa has remained healthy and looked pretty good in his first two full years as a NHL pro.

Should Faksa win the second line center role, he should see playing time Valeri Nichushkin, which would give him the opportunity to enhance his stats with a skilled winger by his side.

2018-19 Prediction 78GP, 22G, 27A

Players to Regress

Jason Spezza

78 GP, 8G, 18A

One could argue the Jason Spezza has already regressed. However it seems he may be in for an even bigger dip in production this season. Spezza is currently 35 years old and has been seeing his production drop off the past couple of years. Spezza hit the 26 point plateau last season, after hitting 50 in 2016-17.

Spezza has slown down since coming to Dallas, and with the game speeding up he simply can’t keep up anymore. With half of his goals and nearly half of his assists coming on the power-play, and with third or fourth line minutes more than likely coming this season for Spezza, he may be reduced to a power-play specialist with his limited ice time.

2018-19 Prediction 71 GP: 6G, 12A

Season Prediction

5th in the Central, 13th in the West (83 points)

Dallas will be one of those close teams again, but will once again fail to make the post season, by 10-12 points. With the Centeral Division being as tough as ever it will be, and a way improved Pacific it will be extremely difficult for Dallas to get in.

Unfourtanlty the Stars with scoring depth still being an issue, a defensive core that has nice peices but is unprooven and a goalie that has a history of injuires, it seems the Stars will be on the outside looking in come playoff time.

The Stars need more identity than just being lead by three or four guys every year. Yes, Seguin and Benn will always produce as long as they are together baring injuries. It is the rest of the team though, the uncertainty of others stepping up in key situations will be Dallas’ downfall this coming season. Dallas has most of the pieces to be a Stanley Cup contender, it will be putting the pieces together that will be the challenge for Dallas going forward.

September 18, 2018 0 comment

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NHL 31 FOR 31: Colorado Avalanche

written by Wyatt Zieger

The Below the Ice crew brings you NHL: 31 for 31.

This year as the clock ticks down towards the NHL season, the writers here at BTI will be bringing you our preview of all 31 NHL teams, in 31 days.

DAY 10:

Home to more than just than just the small quiet mountain town of South Park, Denver is also home to the Colorado Avalanche.

LAST SEASON

Coming off a rough 2016-17 in which Colorado finished last in their division with only 22 wins not many expectations were put on the Avalanches season.

Anticipated to be none contenders Colorado GM Joe Sakic stood firm on his position to move Matt Duchene, but not till the right deal was in place.

Finally on November 5, after what 18 months of trade speculation Duchene, was dealt to the Ottawa Senators, in a 3-way trade that saw the Senators, Kyle Turris, go to Nashville while Sam Girard and Ottawa’s 1st, (2019 deferred) and 3rd, (Justus Anunen, 64th) picks go to the Avalanche, among other pieces.

On December 7, just over a month after trading Duchene, coming off an embarrassing 5-2 loss to the Lightning, the Avalanche had lost 4 straight, with a record of 4-7-2 since his departure. The Av’s sat last in Central, 14 points back of the division leading Blues.

The Avalanche season would not be lost though, as they would rattle off 10 straight victories coming out of the Christmas break, outscoring opponents 41-16. Hart finalist Nathan MacKinnon would pick up 19 points over that stretch (8G, 11A).

After scoring only 53 points the year before, former 1st-overall pick Nathan MacKinnon, would cement himself as a force to be reckoned with. Scoring 97 points, nearly doubling his last years totals, his 39 goals and 58 assists were both career highs as well.

The Avalanche would go on to make the playoffs as the surprise 8-seed, after multiple young players stepped up and had career years, including; JT Compher, Mikko Rantanen, Alexander Kerfoot and Tyson Jost.

OFFSEASON MOVES:

May 1, Signed KHL Goalie, Pavel Francouz 1-year $690,000
June 22, Traded a 2018 2nd-round pick for (G) Philipp Grubauer and Brookes Orpik
July 1, Signed Ian Cole 3-years,$4.25AAV
July 1, Signed Matt Calvert 3-years, $2.85AAV
July 4, Signed 2018 First-round pick Martin Kraut to an entry level contract

IN:

Philipp Grubauer, Ian Cole, Matt Calvert, Martin Kraut,

OUT:

Nail Yakupov, Andrew Hammond, Joe Colbourne, Blake Comeau, Jonathon Bernier

OFFSEASON GRADE: C

After losing Semyon Varlamov last year before the post-season, Colorado’s goaltending depth showed. They sured that up by trading for Philipp Grubauer who last arguably the best goalie in the second half of the NHL last year, outplaying Brayden Holtby. They lose Hammond and Bernier but also add a possible hidden gem in goal, Pavel Francouz.

Colorado signing Ian Cole adds a top for defensemen, who is more defensive minded, allowing him to most likely play on the second pairing with Tyson Barrie. The only question with the signing is that Ian Cole plays on the left side and Colorado is now loaded with six left defensemen on their roster and only two righties.

The addition of Matt Calvert gives Colorado a solid option on 3rd-line C, and makes up for the loss of Blake Comeau. The Avalanche have a lot of young players that should take even bigger steps than last year , most of whom need to be re-signed after the season, IE. Kerfoot, Compher, Rantanen, Zadorov.

Best of luck to Nail Yakupov who is now playing with CKSA in the KHL.

BREAKOUT CANDIDATES:

Conor Timmins

36GP: 8G, 33A (OHL Sault Ste. Marie)

I’ve been a huge fan of Conor Timmins since I got my first real look at him during last years under-20 World Junior Championship, he was one of Canada’s best defensemen leading Canada to gold.

The former second-round pick has one of the best shots to make the team in October because of the advantage he has being a right shot.

Back in February, TSN, had Timmins listed as the 34th best prospect outside of the NHL. With a summer to workout and mature expect Timmins to crack the roster out of training camp and most likely start the year on the 3rd pairing with a rotating; Nemeth, Girard and Lindholm.

Timing breaking out means sticking in the NHL, points don’t have to come immediately for Timmins and with a lot of young defensemen, Colorado will give him time to develop.

2018-19 Projection: 50GP 6G, 12A

JT Compher

69GP 13G, 10A

JT Compher while still technically a rookie last season pulled up his socks for the Colorado Avalanche.

Last year Compher started more than 50% of his shifts in the defensive zone, which showed the rookies grit and tenacity, as most are not trusted to have such a grip on the defensive side of the game so early.

Compher should be a lock to play on the second line this year giving him more offensive opportunities but also more defensive responsibility having to play most of his minutes against top competition.

The one part of the game I would like to see Compher improve is putting more pucks more pucks towards the net. Last season Compher shot less than 2 shots per game (131 shots in 69GP) while shooting 9.9%. If he can up his production to 2.5 shots from 1.8, less than a shot a game Compher could finish with 20 goals easily playing in a full season.

2018-19 Projection: 23G, 18A

DUE TO REGRESS:

Alexander Kerfoot

79GP, 19G, 24A

Last year Kerfoot had an amazing coming out party as a rookie but I don’t believe that production is sustainable.

Kerfoots 19 goals last season on a shockingly low 81 shots, meaning that last season he shot an outworldly 23.5%. I believe both those numbers are set to take a major hit this season because In order to score in the NHL, you need to shoot.

The average for shooting on any giving season is anywhere from 10-13% so lets say 11.5%, which means Kerfoot essentially doubled the leagues average and that is not maintainable. At just over 1 shot per game, Kerfoot would need to more than double his total shots to maintain his goal pace at the leageus average.

Playing on a young talented Colorado squad Kerfoot will still have an opportunity to collect points, bouncing between the 2nd and 3rd lines.

2018-19 Projection: 13G, 20A

SEASON PREDICTION

4th in the Central, 9th in the West, 96 points

Good, but just not good enough for the Avalanche this season.

Colorado will be a bubble team all season in the West, after an incredible year last year, it will be hard to repeat the individual success of everyone again. MacKinnon was a Hart finalist last year but what should we expect from him this year round? The success of the Avalanche, fair or not, lives and dies with their superstar.

The question for the Avalanche is if they can handle the depth in their own division, Nashville and Winnipeg are essentially locks to make the playoffs and the Blues after shooting themselves in the foot near the end of the season last year will be looking to bounce back.

Even if Colorado fails to make the post-season this year, they will still have many kicks at the can left. They are a young budding team that will also have a chance at the #1 pick in this years draft.

September 17, 2018 0 comment

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What can we expect from Cam Talbot?

written by Ian Sheppard

What can we expect from Cam Talbot for the 2018-19 season? That seems to be the question on many Oilers’ fans minds heading into camp. Will we see the all-star caliber play that was an essential piece to the 2017 playoff run or the subpar performance that was apart of the disappointing 2017-18 season?

New York Rangers

Talbot played in a total of 57 games for the New York Rangers before being traded to Edmonton for three draft picks. In those 57 games, all in relief of Henrik Lundqvist, Talbot won 33 games to 15 losses with 8 shutouts.

Edmonton Oilers

In his first season with the Oilers Talbot found himself in a competition with Anders Nilsson and started in 56 games posting a 21-27 record with a 2.55 GAA and a 0.917 SV% before ultimately winning the starting job.

Talbot’s second year as an Oiler was his best of his career by far. He played in an astounding 73 games which some had said was him being over-worked, but none the less had a tremendous year. He finished with 42 wins and 22 losses and a superb 2.39 GAA and 0.919 SV% and 7 shutouts.

Talbot was the backbone to the Oilers coming within one game of the Western Conference Final in 2017. Through 13 playoff games he had a 2.48 GAA and .924 SV% while facing the fifth most shots of any goalie in the playoffs with 437.

The quality of Talbot’s saves was occasionally something to marvel at with it at times seemed like he was the only thing keeping the Oilers’ playoff hopes alive. The Oilers averaged 2.77 goals a game through the playoffs requiring Talbot to be at the top of his game through the postseason, something he found success with.

Going into the 2017-18 season expectations were through the roof and then some for the Oilers. They had arguably the best player in hockey in Connor McDavid, they had great centre depth, and were a team coming off a magical playoff run and had one of the better goalies in the NHL.

Those expectations however, were never even close to being met and while Talbot was not solely to blame for the lack of success he was also not innocent.

Last Year/Down Year

Talbot played in 67 games last year which made some fans happy to see his rest days go up by six but the performances he put on the ice did not translate to a rested goaltender. Talbot gave up 17 more goals than the year before seeing the number jump from 171 to 188.

The Oilers goaltender also saw his win-loss record dwindle from the year prior as well. His league tying and Oilers record 42 wins in 2016-17 shrunk to just 31 in 2018. He broke even on the year with a 31-31 record while putting up a discouraging 3.02 GAA and .908 SV%.

The team missed the playoffs not at the hands of Talbot but again he didn’t do a lot to help the cause either. For as amazing as some of the saves were that Talbot made during the ’17 playoff run, some of the goals he gave up in ’17-’18 were atrocious.

Talbot would be beat on some shots that looked weak, while he would seem to drop to the butterfly too early being beat up high and from sharp angles. The timing of the goals he gave up was always a back-breaker as well.

At times Talbot seemed to give up goals early and in large amounts. Whether it be a goal within the opening seconds or minutes of a game or period or a barrage of goals where he would let in three or four in short amount of time, or even giving one up as quick as seconds after the Oilers were able to score one of their own, the Talbot we saw last year was not the one we were accustomed to.

Who is Cam Talbot?

The question has opened, Which Talbot is the real Talbot? It’s hard to really tell considering he’s only played in 5 seasons as a pro. Two of those years he was a backup to Lundqvist despite getting a decent amount of playing time.

Talbot has played in a total of 253 NHL games in his career. For comparison’s sake, Braden Holtby who came into the league a year before Talbot and is two years younger has played in 361. Talbot hasn’t had a full-time job outside of the last two seasons.

He’s never had a GAA above 2.55 prior to last year nor has had a SV% lower than 0.917 prior to the disappointing .908% last year. Again, this comes from limited game action throughout his career, but it is hard to assume anything other than last year was an anomaly.

Talbot is a bit older for a goaltender with his experience as well at 31-years-old. While he’s not quite at a point where his age should be affecting his game, some have made the argument that perhaps his 2016-17 season was a one-hit wonder before he reached the age of 30.

My opinion on Cam Talbot is that he is a solid starting goaltender for any NHL team. Given that however I don’t think either of the last two seasons are something we can expect from the veteran net-minder.

I believe that his excellent 2016-17 season was one where he outplayed his average ability. I also believe that his bad play last year much like other players on the roster, was just a bad year for him. Being the goaltender on the team made him an outlier of the team’s struggles.

I think the Oilers can expect a solid showing from Talbot where his statistical numbers improve from last year. But if you’re expecting numbers like we saw in 2016-17 don’t hold your breath.

If the Edmonton Oilers want to make the playoffs they can’t expect him to be the backbone that carries them to the promise land.

The biggest question comes to one, Peter Chiarelli as Talbot is entering the last year of his contract and Chiarelli will need to decide if Talbot will get the job done for the Oilers or if it’s time to look elsewhere.

September 7, 2018 0 comment

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NHL 31 for 31: Chicago Blackhawks

written by Wyatt Zieger

The Below the Ice crew brings you NHL: 31 for 31.

This year as the clock ticks down towards the NHL season, the writers here at BTI will be bringing you our preview of all 31 NHL teams, in 31 days.

DAY 9:

Blowing on into the Central Division we head to the windy city for our preview of the Chicago Blackhawks

LAST SEASON

7th in the Central, 13th in the West 33-39-10 (76 points)

Last year was a season of lows for the Chicago Blackhawks.

After being swept by the 8-seed Nashville Predators in the 1st round of the playoffs the year before, everyone expected Chicago to come back with a vengeance. In the off-season they looked to shake the team up and traded Artemi Panarin for Brandon Saad in what most considered a lopsided win for the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Chicago would start the season 17-13-5 before starting goaltender Corey Crawford would go down with an injury that would force him out for the rest of the season. Before going down Crawford had a record of 16-9-2 with a .929SV% and 2.27GAA.

With a massive hole in net, Chicago’s depth on defence would be challenged, Brent Seabrook would be healthy scratched for the first time in his career, Patrick Kane would go under a point-per-game for the first time in 6 seasons.

All in all the Blackhawks would see a 33 point swing in the standings finishing near the basement missing the playoffs for the first time in 10 years.