Below The Ice
  • Home
  • NHL
    • NHL

      Tamed: An Obituary for the Minnesota Wild

      April 23, 2018

      NHL

      Stanley Cup Playoff Recap-Day 12

      April 23, 2018

      NHL

      Stanley Cup Playoff Recap-Day 11

      April 22, 2018

      NHL

      Stanley Cup Playoff Recap-Day 10

      April 21, 2018

      NHL

      Stanley Cup Playoff Recap – Day 9

      April 20, 2018

  • Crusaders
  • AJHL
  • Fantasy
    • Fantasy

      Landing Spots for Erik Karlsson

      February 24, 2018

      Fantasy

      Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 16

      January 30, 2017

      Fantasy

      Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 15B

      January 23, 2017

      Fantasy

      Waiver Wire Pickups Week 14

      January 9, 2017

      Fantasy

      Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 10

      December 12, 2016

  • Shows
  • The Team
  • Win Column Sports
Inside The Cru – April 4 – Feat....
Crusaders 2017/18 Ups and Down
Garrett Clegg Named to All-Rookie Team
Inside The Cru – March 28 – Feat....
March 21 – Inside The Cru Feat. Kyle...
Inside The Cru – March 13
Playoff Cru Wrap: Game 4 vs Grande Praire

Below The Ice

Banner
  • Home
  • NHL
    • NHL

      Tamed: An Obituary for the Minnesota Wild

      April 23, 2018

      NHL

      Stanley Cup Playoff Recap-Day 12

      April 23, 2018

      NHL

      Stanley Cup Playoff Recap-Day 11

      April 22, 2018

      NHL

      Stanley Cup Playoff Recap-Day 10

      April 21, 2018

      NHL

      Stanley Cup Playoff Recap – Day 9

      April 20, 2018

  • Crusaders
  • AJHL
  • Fantasy
    • Fantasy

      Landing Spots for Erik Karlsson

      February 24, 2018

      Fantasy

      Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 16

      January 30, 2017

      Fantasy

      Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 15B

      January 23, 2017

      Fantasy

      Waiver Wire Pickups Week 14

      January 9, 2017

      Fantasy

      Waiver Wire Pickups: Week 10

      December 12, 2016

  • Shows
  • The Team
  • Win Column Sports
FeaturedNHL

Race for the Hart: Crosby vs. McDavid

written by Tony Brar February 9, 2017

There’s an interesting race brewing for the NHL’s most coveted individual award. Penguins superstar, Sidney Crosby, and Edmonton’s saviour, Connor McDavid, both find themselves on top of league scoring and are considered early favorites for the league’s Most Valuable Player. Who will come out on top?

History of the Hart

Before digging into their 2016-2017 performances, let’s look at some patterns in the awarding of the Hart:

  • Since 1990, 21 of 26 recipients of the award have been forwards (with 13 of those 21 being centres). Barring any big surprises, it can be reasonably assumed that one of the two centres will win be crowned MVP.
    Note: Wayne Gretzky won an incredible nine Hart Trophies between 1980 and 1989; these numbers would have skewed the data, hence the 1990 starting point.
  • Of the last 26 recipients, 22 of them were skaters (one defenceman, Chris Pronger, was awarded the Hart in 2000). 12 of the 22 skaters led the league in scoring the same year they won. However, there seems to be a recent trend when voting for the Hart: nine of the last 14 Hart Trophy winners also won the Art Ross Trophy.
  • Staying within 1990 to 2016, all 26 winners were players on a playoff team. In regards to making the playoffs, Pittsburgh and Edmonton, while still probable, will need to continue their high level of play to secure playoff positions.
  • Important note: Sidney Crosby is the winner of two Hart Trophies (2007 & 2014).

2016-2017 Statistics

Of course, we need to look at the 2016-2017 season. Crosby and McDavid find themselves tied for the NHL’s scoring lead with 60 points a piece. However, Sid the Kid has only played in 46 games as opposed to McDavid’s 55. Their stat lines are as follows:

  • Crosby: 46 GP, 30 G, 30 A, 60 PTS, +16, 19:26 TOI
  • McDavid: 55 GP, 18 G, 42 A, 60 PTS, +15, 21:16 TOI

While leading the league in goals, Crosby owns a 1.30 PTS/Game average, which is tops in the league. In 2006-2007 and 2013-2014 (Crosby’s two Hart Trophy winning seasons), the Penguins star held 1.52 and 1.3 PTS/Game averages. You can say Sid is scoring at a nominal ‘Hart Rate’ this season.

McDavid’s vision and playmaking ability puts him on top of the NHL’s assist leader-board. He owns a 1.09 PTS/Game and logs more ice time than Sidney Crosby. He is 5th among forwards in TOI, trailing Patrick Kane (1st) by 17 Seconds/Game.

Digging Deeper

While a good reference point, the above stats don’t tell the whole story. Let’s dig deeper into situational stats:

Home & Away:

Sidney Crosby

Home:  24 GP, 13 G, 16 A, 29 PTS, +8       Record: 19-3-2
Away:   22 GP, 17 G, 14 A, 31 PTS, +8       Record: 11-8-3

Connor McDavid

Home:  25 GP,   6 G, 17 A, 23 PTS, +6       Record: 13-9-3
Away:  30 GP, 12 G, 25 A, 37 PTS, +9       Record: 16-9-5

Wins & Losses*

Sidney Crosby

Wins:     30 GP, 25 G, 23 A, 48 PTS, +29
Losses:  16 GP,   5 G,   7 A, 12 PTS, -13

Connor McDavid

Wins:     29 GP, 12 G, 27 A, 39 PTS, +24
Losses:  26 GP,   6 G, 15 A, 21 PTS, -9

*Includes OT Losses

  • Both Crosby and McDavid enjoy productive nights playing in opposing teams’ arenas, which is contrary to the norm. Going up against the other teams’ top lines seems to bring the best out of both candidates.
  • Unlike McDavid, Crosby’s production doesn’t share a direct correlation with the Penguins’ success on the road. Furthermore, the Pens have a sparkling home record; one that doesn’t seem to heavily rely on 87’s production as much.
  • McDavid has a PTS/Game average below 1.00 at Rogers Place this season, which is odd in theory. One would believe McLellan, with the last-change, would deploy 97 in favorable matchups. McDavid’s direct correlation in both home/away production with team success indicates the Oilers’ reliance on their franchise centre.
  • The Oilers pivot also seems to be more productive than Crosby in losses, which means McDavid truly gives his team a chance to win every night. It is worth noting that McDavid and Crosby score at a 0.81 and 0.75 PTS/Game marks, which are very good numbers in these circumstances.

Verdict

Quoting NHL.com, the Hart Memorial Trophy is “given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.” It is the highest honor an NHL player can receive during regular season play.

My early-bird pick for the 2017 National Hockey League MVP: Connor McDavid.

While Crosby is scoring at an incredible rate, I believe his 19.9 Shooting% is unsustainable; his career average is 14.8%. This would ultimately lead to a decrease in goals and point production over the second-half of the season. Additionally, Crosby’s Penguins have shown that they can win with less production from 87.

Meanwhile, Connor McDavid’s production seems to be correlated with team success; this emphasizes the importance of the Ontarian’s point totals. Furthermore, he has shown the ability to put up points in bunches and should see a slight increase in production during the second half (mainly due to maturity and experience). Thus, the end-of-season statistics should be closer than what they are sitting at right now and a little easier to choose a winner.

Quick Notes:

  • In my opinion, Sidney Crosby is still the best player in the world. However, considering the definition of the Hart, I just see Connor McDavid fitting the description better.
  • I believe Sidney Crosby will win the Ted Lindsay Award as the best player voted by the players at season’s end.
  • Sidney Crosby leads all active players in PTS/Game. He is 5th all-time in this category behind Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Mike Bossy and Bobby Orr. Incredible!
Race for the Hart: Crosby vs. McDavid was last modified: February 9th, 2017 by Tony Brar
Connor McDavidcrosbyEdmontonHart TrophyMcDavidnhlOilersPenguinsPittsburghSidney Crosby
0 comment
11
Facebook Twitter Google + Pinterest
Tony Brar

previous post
5 Players Due for a Call-Up
next post
Inside The Cru: Ben Sowa

You may also like

Radulov Impresses

October 25, 2016

Cru Wrap: December 3 vs Okotoks

December 4, 2016

Cru Wrap: January 13th vs. Calgary Canucks

January 14, 2017

Expect A Quiet Deadline

January 25, 2017

Pacific Division Preview

September 26, 2017

One Year After MacTavish

March 23, 2016

BTI Predicts Round Two

April 29, 2016

Inside The Cru: Ben Sowa

February 9, 2017

Team Canada’s World Cup Forwards

May 26, 2016

Below The Ice: Official Blog of the Sherwood Park Crusaders

October 19, 2016

Leave a Comment Cancel Reply

About Below The Ice

Here at Below The Ice our goal is to keep you informed. Whether you're looking for breakdowns with the latest advanced stats or opinions on the latest stories from around the hockey world. We're the site for every fan.

Latest Tweets

  • .@SpennyLove_WCS has got your #mnwild obituary following their elimination from the #StanleyCupPlayoffs… https://t.co/aVVmodZPhG

    23-Apr-2018

    Reply Retweet Favorite
  • Here is a quick recap of the #StanleyCup playoffs from @IShepps17 https://t.co/31sUKxMcsC #GoPens #goFlyersgo… https://t.co/mWUAx6sLeC

    23-Apr-2018

    Reply Retweet Favorite
  • Here's a quick recap of Day 11 of the #StanleyCupPlayoffs https://t.co/X5xlNUFVDp #GoCaps #CBJ #GoBolts… https://t.co/DDVAfZGYQ8

    22-Apr-2018

    Reply Retweet Favorite
  • Day 10 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs took place tonight and @IShepps17 has you covered! https://t.co/YxbWRNGaU7… https://t.co/OxvWoBZcMc

    21-Apr-2018

    Reply Retweet Favorite
  • It was a small card tonight in the #StanleyCupPlayoff but still highly entertaining! STANLEY CUP PLAYOFF RECAP – D… https://t.co/TEdkIHUFUW

    20-Apr-2018

    Reply Retweet Favorite

Popular Posts

  • Inside The Cru: Brendan Kallis

    August 31, 2017
  • Cru Wrap: January 13th vs. Calgary Canucks

    January 14, 2017
  • Industry Talk With Sportsnet’s Kyle Bukauskas

    October 24, 2016
  • Pessimism vs Optimism: An Oilers Conversation

    October 26, 2016
  • 5 Offseason Moves – Edmonton Oilers

    April 18, 2016
HF Boards

@2016 - Below The Ice. All Right Reserved


Back To Top